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27 October 2022.
Introduction:
The 2022 NDC synthesis report was released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ahead of the COP27 that is set to held in November this year.
What is NDC synthesis report?
The UNFCCC’s synthesis report is an annual summary of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and their impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The 2022 edition analyses 166 NDCs (climate commitments) communicated to the UNFCCC as of September 23 this year. This is the second synthesis of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
What are the key findings of the 2022 NDC synthesis report?
- The report found that while countries are minimising their GHG emissions, their combined climate pledges could put the world on track for around 2.5°C of warming by the end of the 21st
- The current NDCs will increase GHG emissions by 10.6 per cent by the end of this decade compared to 2010 levels. This is a marginal improvement when compared with last year’s assessment, which estimated that the emissions will increase by 13.7 per cent by 2030.
- However, this is insufficient to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.
- 2021 analysis showed that the projected GHG emissions will continue to spike beyond 2030. This year’s report revealed that the emissions will no longer spike after 2030. However, this does not demonstrate downward trend required to maintain 1.5°C.
- The previous synthesis estimated emissions of 54.9 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2030. If the latest NDCs are implemented, 52.4 GtCO2e of GHGs will be emitted by 2030.
- The global emissions must be only 31 GtCO2e in 2030 to reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement.
- The world is currently on track to surpass this by more than 20 GtCO2e by the end of this decade despite commitments made countries across the world.