Changing Status of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Indian Ocean” Report

13 May 2023


A study titled “Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean” sheds light on the effects of climate change on cyclones in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Main points of the  Study

  • Both sides of the Indian coast are witnessing intensification of cyclones.
  • In the Arabian Sea, the translation speed of cyclones has decreased, indicating slower movement.
  • Rising ocean temperatures and increased moisture availability under global warming are closely linked to the increased cyclonic activity in this region.
  • Analyzing the period from 1982 to 2019, the study identifies a significant increasing trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms (CS) and very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) over the Arabian Sea.
  • Notably, there has been a remarkable 52% increase in the frequency of CS during the recent epoch (2001-2019) in the Arabian Sea. In contrast, the Bay of Bengal has witnessed a decrease of 8% in the frequency of cyclonic storms.
  • The study also highlights the limitations of current cyclone prediction models. These models often fail to accurately predict the rapid intensification of cyclones due to the inadequate inclusion of ocean conditions. As a result, the models are unable to capture the full impact and intensity of cyclones.